HUMANITY STATUS: STILL HEREPACIFIC TIME
THE 2036 QUESTION
Will we make it
to the other side?
Estimated chance of AI causing human extinction
by the end of 2036.
—%EXTINCTION
ESTIMATE
ESTIMATE
0 / NO EXTINCTION100 / EXTINCTION
SPECULATIVE FORECASTFor entertainment. Not scientific consensus.
LATEST ESTIMATELoading snapshot…
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UPDATE WINDOWS · PACIFIC TIME06:00 / 16:00
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ESTIMATE TRACE
Probability over time.
VISIBLE RANGE—
NET CHANGE—
RECORDED ESTIMATES—
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THE INPUT, WITHOUT THE NOISE
Signals from the frontier.
The 10 most relevant sources used in this estimate, selected for their connection to AI capabilities, control, and safeguards. Open any source to read it in full.
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